North America, Asia & Oceania contributes for more than 62% to the CO2 emission, while Europe and Eurasia contribute togheter for a little bit more than North America. The following table shows the relevant 2006 emissions. USA emits the 85% of its continent emission, while
China, India, Japan e South Korea emit more than 80% of the Asia & Oceania emission. Russia emits around 66% of the Eurasia emission. Europe performs better: the four main countries emit only the 49% of the Old Continent emissions. To calculate the temperature reduction in case of the best scenario (reduction of 40% for “rich” countries and 30% of developing countries) , let’s calculate first the emissions in this scenario. Let’s assume that the countries which will perform a 40% reduction are the following: all the European Countries, Japan, Russia and North America. With this hypothesys, we obtain the values in fig. 2.
The total value of the CO2 anthropomorphic emissions will be 37721 million of tons, with a reduction of near 35% w.r.t. the 2006 emissions. In this scenario, the pollution percentage are equal to the 2006 percentages. First of all, in ordert to estimate the temperature change, let’s note that the value in the 2020 CO2 emissions is near equal to the global emissions in 1984 (38338 million of metric tons, see figure 3).
Let assume that the CO2 distribution among ocean, atmosphere and biosphere is the same. In this way, we can assume that the percentage of CO2 in atmosphere in 2020 will be the same of 1984. The Mauna Loa data shows that the CO2 concentration values in the atmosphere in the 1984 and 2006 are 344.41 ppm and 381.85 ppm respectively. Therefore, for the hypothesis, the C2020 O2 concentration will be 344.41 ppm. After some calculations (see the box) , we obtain
that the temperature, due to the deacrease of the CO2 concentration, will deacreas of 0.44 degree (assuming, according to IPCC AR, that a double of the CO2 concentration will have the effect of increase the temperatore of 3 degree) . The temperature value is low: a decrease of near half degree in 14 years. However, since the temperature trend in the last year has been to increase of 0.117 degree per decade, the 0.44 decrease is a good change in the trend. Moreover, this results show that the scenario proposed by UN could reflect the value of 350 ppm that, according to some news, the Association for the Small Island States and some other countries have requested, and should also satisfy the rich or “potentially rich” countries, since they maintain their developing percentage. However, I see a lot of unknows: how to arrive to a decreas of 2 degree and, in particular, which plans will be used to reach that goal of a decrease of 90% of CO2 emissions by 2050? Moreover, the percentage of the CO2 emission in 2020 for each continent will be, according to our analysi, the same of 2006. This imply the same distribution of people, and the same energetic needs. What about in case of migration due to the current climate change? How the developing countries will obtain the technologies to decrease the CO2 emissions? Will they immediately decrease the CO2 emissions? If the countries do not act in this direction, the obtained values will be very optimistics. In other words, the definition of the agreement requirement is not sufficient: the countries shall undertake to act immediately, whitout wait long acting times that will nullify the positive effect of the choice.
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